Hassan Daioleslam August 1, 2007 Foreword:
The policy of This
article is not a crusade against one person. As the toll of this
political disorientation has been heavy and will continue to be heavy, a
detailed study of Takeyh’s standpoint is warranted. Through
understanding Takeyh, we better understand pro-Iran campaigners in the Background In
a recent article I wrote about NIAC (National Iranian American Council)
and its front man Trita Parsi [3, 4]. This organization, with strong
connections to the inner circles of power in Dr
Takeyh’s writings are the prime example of pro-Iran cerebral advocacy.
Through studying Takeyh’s works, we demonstrate how the pro-Iranian
circles advance their campaign in the Some
of the main points that these think tankers have tried hard to promote,
in a nut shell, are: 2000-2001:
Takeyh was zealously against engagement with Mullahs Prior
to joining the pro-Iranian circles and CFR, Takeyh presented a totally
different view of the Iranian regime. Even under Khatami’s rule and
the peak of power of the reformist circles in “
… And this is where a strategy of accommodation falters. For no degree
of internal liberalization is likely to alter this fundamental clash of
interests. Khatemi may have discarded the Khomeini regime's intemperate
rhetoric and inflammatory strategy, but he has remained loyal to its
hegemonic aspirations. A more pragmatic At
that time, Takeyh was categorically against any carrots given to the
Iranian regime. He advised the “If
2002:
Takeyh was Pro-war with There
is a perception that these pro-Iran circles are genuinely peace-loving
scholars that are trying to avoid another war. Nothing could be farther
from truth. The action item of the day for these scholars has always
been coordination with “Beginning
with Thomas Jefferson’s call for "empire of liberties,"
American statesmen have long propounded a vision of a global
civilization predicated on liberal democracy and market economics. ….
In contrast to the European focus on the external behavior of states as
opposed to their internal composition, American internationalists have
long argued that the domestic character of a state is the most
predictable barometer of its external conduct. U.S. President George W.
Bush’s emphasis on regime change and the promotion of democracy as the
primary mean s of ensuring American security, at the expense of
deterrence, containment, and the balance of power, is well in keeping
with that outlook.”[7] Then,
Takeyh started a new career with the pro-Iranian regime circles and
experienced a sudden intellectual enlightenment that turned him to a
resolute and tenacious advocate of engagement. Best
Time for a Deal A
common goal for the Iranian regime and the Regardless
of the time, situation or who is in power in 2000
(Khatami’s presidency and peak of the power of reformists): “We get
a better deal on all issues of concern, the holy trinity – weapons,
terrorism, and Israel – from the reformers, who are more pragmatists
than the hard-liners.”[8] 2002:
“This time, with public opinion in favor of reaching out to
Washington, Iranian political groups of all complexion are loath to let
the opportunity pass.”[9] 2004
(Defeat of reformers and rise of radical faction): “The recent demise
of the reform movement has facilitated the ascendance of pragmatic
conservatives willing to have a far-reaching dialogue with the 2004:
“For the first time in more than 20 years, the 2005
(The radical fundamentalists gain power. Ahmadinejd is elected as the
president): “Despite the election of a hard-line government in 2007:
“In It
is interesting to see how under very different situations, and cast of
characters in power in Let’s
focus on the last ten years and examine the events in 1997-2004:
Reform is concretely irreversible The
victory of Mohammad Khatami in the presidential election of 1997,
created an ideal political environment for the American business
interests to embark on a new aggressive lobby against the economic
sanctions imposed on Armed
with such an impressive armada, the pro-engagement circles tried to
represent the reformer’s victory as rock solid and irreversible, hence
a unique opportunity for the Robin
Wright wrote: “The
(2000 parliamentary) election may also have marked the onset of recovery
— a revolution’s third and final phase”.[14] “The
impact of political change in “Like
the world around it, Suzanne
Maloney was also very clear on the irreversibility of the reform
movement: “For
the foreseeable future, then, the Islamic Republic will continue to be
buffeted by the forces of divisiveness and unresolved questions of
authority. Nonetheless, the February elections provide powerful evidence
that the system is evolving in an irreversibly democratic fashion”.
[17] Takeyh
was even more affirmative, He wrote: “The
next institution that is likely to fall in the hands of the reformers is
the judiciary… The anticipated reform of the court system will further
diminish the conservatives' power base…In the coming decade it is
likely that the position of the leader will undergo transformations as
its absolutism is widely challenged within both clerical and secular
circles.”[18] “Despite
sporadic setbacks, Khatami and his reform supporters are forging new
paths and transforming politics into a meaningful representative
practice ... A politicized middle class, restive youth and an emboldened
civil society make the recession of conservative power inevitable.”
[19] Takeyh,
like Robin Wright was asserting that the reform movement is the Iranian
regime’s last chance of survival. “Should
the hardliners succeed in completely obstructing reform, Then,
in 2001, Takeyh again asserted that the reformists are “In
fact, for Takeyh
emphasized the unique opportunity for the “
I think, should there be – and I don't anticipate that – there's
sort of a conservative backlash and takeover of power in 2004:
CFR and Takeyh masked the rise of Ahmadinejad’s faction In
July 2004, the Council on Foreign Relations released its Task Force
Report on “We
are actually at a turning point and something fundamental is happening
which is the militarization of Iranian politics. The regime’s stance
on nuclear issue, the affiliation of the new MPs and the positions taken
by some of the regime’s leader regarding The
“Rouydad news” considered as the reformers’ news website,
published a commentary and strongly warned that: “
The incident of “Imam airport” was a clear indication on the new
trend in the power structure. This trend was first demonstrated in the
city councils elections and shows a total control of the” Guards”.
During the parliamentary elections in 2004, the Guards and the Bassijis
became very active and a majority of the new deputies came from these
institutions and the security forces. The new head of the Iranian TV and
Radio is also a former high ranking member of the Guards as it is the
case for Ahmadinejad, the new mayor of Shargh
newspaper, wrote several editorials about the new emerging radical
faction. For instance, it clearly reported that: “Abadgaran
the victorious group in parliamentary election is dominated by these new
fundamentalists and as a result, the traditional conservatives are
marginalized.” [25] While
a large number of Iranian analysts, political scholars and intellectuals
were warning the Iranians and the international community about the rise
of this new faction and its dangerous internal and international
implications, the CFR task force report not only did not mention
anything about this apparent element, it surprisingly discovered an
“ascending pragmatic faction” in Iran: “ “
…. the pragmatists who appear to be ascendant in “….
Some conservatives appear to favor a ‘ Mr.
and Mrs.Takeyh (Susan Maloney) and friends magically discovered a new
ascending “pragmatic” faction completely unknown to the Iranian
observers inside the country. In 2004 and 2005, Takeyh and his
colleagues wrote numerous articles to institute that such pragmatic
faction is indeed in command. In an extraordinary article Takeyh brought
together all of his untrue conjunctures. This article, jam-packed with
fabrications and a clear example of manipulation, was uniquely designed
to mislead the “The
reality is that the postwar situation in Iraq and the massive projection
of U.S. power along Iran’s [border] have strengthened the position of
a cadre of pragmatic conservatives seeking practical solutions to
Iran’s increasingly dire predicaments. Under the banner of “new
thinking,” this group seeks to restructure “Such
dire circumstances have facilitated the rise of a pragmatic wing among
Iranian conservatives, sometimes known as the new Right. If the
reformers are comparable to Gorbachev, the pragmatic conservatives
resemble “This
clerical cadre of pragmatic conservatives is grouped around influential
former Iranian president Rafsanjani and the outgoing parliamentary
speaker Mehdi Karrubi … The pragmatic conservatives first found a home
and a base within the political party Khedmatgozaran-i Sazandegi
(Servants of Construction) that was set up in 199..” Ever since the
closing years of the Rafsanjani administration (1989–1997), this
faction has dominated key regime institutions such as the Expediency
Council, which is responsible for mediating conflicts between the Majlis
and the Guardian Council and for setting economic policy.” [27] “After
most reformist candidates were disqualified from the 2004 elections, it
has been the pragmatic grouping Abadgaran Iran-e-Islami, that has
emerged as the leading faction within the new Majlis… indicating that
the pragmatists have a comfortable base within the new legislature.
Moreover, a leading figure of the new Right, the secretary of This
article was little more than a manipulation tactic. Even a cursory study
of the Iranian press as well as the events in Only
one year later, Takeyh argued completely differently and called the new
parliament a radical assembly which was against Rafsanjani. [28] Takeyh’s
cohort, David L. Phillips from CFR also discovered that the defeat of
reformers created a new occasion that never existed before: “
At least the recent election results will break the log jam; (the
eviction of reformers) Tehran will be represented by one unified
government that is hopefully more pragmatic and more committed to
fulfilling Iran's international obligations.”[29] Gary
Sick, another affiliate of CFR, went even further and completely denied
the victory of conservatives. In his interview with the Farsi language
radio Farda he declared: “The
fact that some well-known reformists are no longer in the parliament
doesn’t mean that the new assembly is conservative. There are many
independents and many reformers with the conservative pasts who are
present in the new assembly.” [30] Takeyh
and his colleagues were so certain about the ascendance of this
pragmatic faction that they advised the The
As the 2005 election was approaching, Takeyh and CFR, once again
switched gears and took a completely opposite position. In the middle of
“..
in their euphoric embrace of Mr Rafsanjani, the Europeans neglect both It
is hard to believe that Takeyh so easily forgot the advice he was giving
to the “
However, the facade of elections conceals the remarkable changes that 2005-
Ahmadinejad’s foreign policy is pragmatist After
Ahmadinejad won presidential elections in “…Although
the assertive nationalists (new appellation for fascism) who have taken
command of Iran's executive branch have dispensed with their
predecessor's "dialogue of civilizations" rhetoric, and
display a marked indifference to reestablishment of relations with
America, they are loath to jeopardize the successful multilateral détente
that was the singular achievement of the reformist era. The
days when Despite
the chorus of concern, Do
not lose hope; Rafsanjani could come back to power Only
a few months prior to this, in an attempt to advocate “Irrespective
of the verdict of the presidential contest, the future of But
after the world’s negative reaction to Ahmadinejad’s behavior,
Takeyh changed his position again. As if his duty is to sustain a
permanent window of hope for the West, he discovered a new solution:
Rafsanjani or reformers will come back again. In his testimony before
the Senate’s Foreign Relations Committee on November 15, 2005 he
declared “In
There
are already signs that the clerical system is re-balancing itself and
seeking to restraint its impetuous new president. Mahmoud
Ahamdinejad’s inexperience and ideological stridency has cost 2006-
a new powerful faction: Realists A
few months later, Takeyh, one more time, changes position and finds a
new faction. Now, the “Realists” are the new windows of hope for the
West. In his testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on
September 19, 2006, Takeyh said: “The
debates are no longer between the pragmatists such as Ayatollah Hashemi
Rafsanjani and the more austere reactionary clerics… The current
divide in the theocratic regime is between those who press for a
revolutionary foreign policy and more tempered realists emphasizing
Persian nationalism. This delineation is best exemplified by examining
the worldviews of Ahmadinejad and the current head of the Supreme
National Security Council, Ali Larijani. Realists:
President Ahmadinejad’s rhetorical fulminations and presence on the
international stage should not obscure the fact that he is not in
complete command of Only
6 weeks later, Takeyh changed his position one more time. For more than
a year he had been arguing that the Iranian leadership and the Supreme
Leader are checking Ahmadinejad’s power and as a result, the new
“realists” charted I
actually think at this particular point Ahmadinejad is probably the
second most important actor in 2007:
Nationalist Pragmatists are coming! In
yet another stretch of imagination, in Newsweek on Feb.26, 2007, Takeyh
announced to the world that the true power holders in “This
emerging group looks askance at the strident rhetoric of President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Its members tend to stress Iranian nationalism over
Islamic identity, and pragmatism over ideology. …. Over the past two
years, members of this pragmatic faction have risen to influence within
the highest ranks of government, the intelligence community and the
military…. these men are trying to wrest control of Iran's
international relations from the most militant old-guard mullahs.”[38]
Conclusion As
we have seen through a sample collection of Takeyh’s writings and
proclamations, he has constantly insisted that the Iranian regime has
always been ready to reach out to The
same advice is naturally offered in the nuclear confrontation with References 1.http://www.brook.edu/scholars/smaloney.htm. 2. 3.Daioleslam,
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Hassan Daioleslam Hassan Daioleslam is an
independent writer and Iran Analyst. He is well published and has
appeared as an expert guest in the Voice of America-TV as well as other
Persian media. Daioleslam has three decades of history of political
activism and political scholarly analysis. |